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Socio-Economic Infor 2011

Socio-economic information the first half of 2011
24/07/2011 16:43:00


The country’s socio-economy in the first half of 2011 has run in a difficult and challenging background. Prices of main goods in the world market have fluctuated with an increasing trend. Although some big economies have just recovered after the global financial crisis, there are potential risks and unstable things. In the country, inflation increased, the weather was happening complicatedly, epidemic diseases affected on crops and animals. These adverse things have strongly influenced on production and business activities and people’s life.

The Party, National Assembly and Government have promulgated many timely and important Instructions and Resolutions, at the same time focused on supplying concrete and close guidance to line ministries, administrative levels and economic corporations to act upon those instructions and resolutions in an effective and synchronous way. Notably, there were the Conclusion No. 02-KL/TW dated 16/3/2011 by the Politburo on the social and economic situation for 2011 and Resolution No. 11/NQ-CP dated 24/02/2011 by the Government on essential solutions aiming at curbing inflation, stabilizing the macro economy and keeping social security. Additionally, the efforts to overcome difficulties and proactive activities in running business by enterprises have also played an important part in creating a positive change in stabilizing the macro economy. The results of all sectors in the first six months of the year are as follows:

I. ECONOMIC GROWTH

1. Gross Domestic Products (GDP) Growth

GDP in the 1st half of 2011 was estimated increasing by 5.57% from the same period in 2010, of which it was 5.43% in Q. I and 5.67% in Q. II. Of the economy’s general growth, the agriculture, forestry and fishery rose 2.08%, contributed 0.36 point percent; the industry and construction rose 6.49%, contributed 2.64 points percent and the service rose 6.12%, contributed 2.57 points percent.

2. Agriculture, forestry and fishery

The production value of this sector at 1994 constant prices in the first 6 months was estimated rising 3.7% from the same period last year, of which agriculture rose 3.3%; forestry 5.3% and fishery 5.1%.

a. Agriculture

The country’s cultivated area for spring rice this year reached 3,096,200 ha, increased 10,300 ha from the same crop in 2010, of which provinces in the North achieved 1,151,200 ha, rose 4,000 ha; and provinces in the South 1,945,000 ha, up 6,300 ha.

Spring rice productivity was estimated reaching 6,290 kg/ha, up 60 kg/ha from last year ‘same crop; the yield reached 19.5 million tons, up 258,000 tons. The productivity in the North was estimated reaching 6,030 kg/ha, up 70 kg/ha from last year‘same crop and the yield reached 6.9 million tons, up 98,000 tons. The yield in the South was estimated reaching 12.5 million tons, up 160,000 tons against last year’s same crop, the productivity rose 60 kg/ha. Privately, the productivity in Mekong Delta reached 6,690 kg/ha, up 130 kg/ha and the yield reached nearly 10.5 million tons, up 218,000 tons.

Together with the winter-spring rice crop harvest, as of middle of June, provinces over the country also sowed summer-autumn rice seeds for 1,940,400 ha, which was equal to 95.7% of the same period last year, of which provinces in the South completed 1,789,600 ha, equal to 99.5% against the same period last year.

In the first six months, some perennial plants gave considerably high yield against the same period last year due to increase in cultivated area, of which tea rose 6.4%; rubber 1.8%; cashew nut 4.2%; litchi and rambutan 7.6%.

As of 01/4/2011, the country had 2.8 million buffalos, down 3.5%; 5.7 million oxen, down 5.2%; 26.3 million pigs, down 3.7%; and 293.7 million fowls, up 5.9% from the same period last year. Some animal products increased considerably against the same period last year, of which fowl live weight meat reached 386,300 tons, up16.8%; fowl eggs were 3.9 million, up19%.

b. Forestry

Total concentrated forestation area in 6 months was estimated reaching 51,500 ha only, equal to 67.6% of the same period in 2010; decentralized planted trees were 108 million, equal to 100.4%; area under cultivation was 393,700 ha, up 2.8%; regenerated natural forest area was 1,046,200 ha, up 4.6%; wood production was 2,007,000 m3, up13.1%. Damaged area was 1,534 ha, equal to 20.9% of the same period last year, of which burnt area was 676 ha, equal to 10.7%; destroyed area was 858 ha, equal to 85.3%.

c. Fishery

The total estimated fishing production in 6 months was estimated reaching 2,510,800 tons, up 3.2% from the same period last year, of which there were 1,924,800 tons of fish, up 2.6%; 214,700 tons of shrimp, up 5.3%.

The aquaculture area reached 970,000 ha, up 3.5% from the same period last year, so the yield rose considerably, reaching 1,259,500 tons as estimated, up 5.2% (1,010,700 tons of fish, up 4.8%, of which 517,000 tons were catfish, up 4.7%; 153,000 tons, up 6.6%). The aquatic product exploitation was influenced by increases in gasoline and oil costs, the yield reached only 1,251,300 tons, up 1.3% from the same period last year, of which sea exploitation reached 1,170,000 tons, up 1.4%; for tuna production only, it was estimated to reach 9,000 tons, up 8.8% from the same period last year; production of cuttlefish and octopus was 107,000 tons, up 5%.

3. Industry

June’s industrial production index (IPI) [1] rose 4.6% from May 2011 and 12.7% from the same period last year. Generally in six months, IPI of the whole sector rose 9.7% (higher than the pace of 8% in the first half of 2010), of which mining and quarrying rose 2.8%; manufacturing 12.7%; power, gas and water 10.3%.

Industrial products with higher IPI from the same period last year were sugar 43.5%; prefabricated metal products 38.1%; inflammable porcelains (excluding those used in construction) 35.3%; non-alcohol drinks 35%; constructional inflammable bricks, tiles and porcelains 24.2%; raw flour 23.8%; wrinkling paper and wrapping 18.3%; fertilizer and nitric compound 17%; steel 16.4%; clothes (excluding leather clothes) 16.1%; beer 15.7%; butter and milk 15.1%; fiber and fabric 15%; cement 14.7%.

The consumption indexes for processed and manufactured products in the five first months of this year increased by 17.5% from the same period in 2010. Products with higher indexes were prefabricated metal products 80.4%; sugar 49.8%; constructional inflammable bricks, tiles and porcelains 45.6%; non-alcohol drinks 29.9%; inflammable porcelains (excluding those used in construction) 27.2%. Products with slowed down indexes were fiber and fabric 10.3%; steel 9.8%; animal feed 8.8%; beer 6.2%; pulp, paper and paper board 4.5%; pharmaceutical products 0.6%

In-stock indexes of the processing and manufacturing sector as of 01/6/2011 rose 15.9% from the same period last year. Of which, products with higher indexes were beer 94.3%; bed, wardrobe, table and chair 71.7%; shoes and sandals 59.4%; non-alcohol drinks 39.9%; animal feed 37.6%; fiber and fabric 35.4%; electric insulated cables and wires 34.1%; motorbike 30%.

4. Service

a. Total retailed sales of consumer goods and services

As estimated, total retailed sales of consumer goods and services in 6 months rose 22.6% from the same period last year, if the factor of high price was excluded the growth was 5.7%. Of the total, trade increased by 23.2%; staying, eating and drinking by 19.6%; service by 22.3% and tourism by 19.1%.

b. Carriage of passengers and cargos

Passenger carriage in 6 months was estimated increasing 12.8% by volume carried and 11.6% by volume traffic carried against the same period last year, of which central transport rose 8.9% and 11.2%; local transport 13.2% and 12% respectively. Respectively, land transport was estimated to rise 13.2% and 12.1%; river 8.1% and 12.3%; air 15.6% and 11.8%; sea 4.7% and 5.6%; rail 1.1% and 2% from the same period last year.

As estimated, cargo transport in 6 months rose 11.1% by tons and 5.4% by tons-kilometers against the same period last year, of which the domestic transport increased by 12.4% and 9.5%; land transport 12.8% and 10.9%; river 7.4% and 7.7%; sea 3% and 4%; rail was down 4.9% by tons but up 6.8% by tons-kilometers.

c. Communication

The number of new telephone subscribers in 6 months reached 4.7 million, equal to 59.5% from the same period last year, including 33,400 desk telephone subscribers, equaling 26.3% and over 4.6 million mobile phone subscribers, equal to 60%. The number of telephone subscribers over the country to the end of June 2011 was estimated reaching 128.1 million, up 4.6% from the same period last year, including 15.5 million desk telephone subscribers, up 0.7% and 112.6 million mobile phone subscribers, up 5.2% [3].

The number of internet subscribers over the country as at the end of June 2011 was estimated reaching 3.9 million, up 16.8% from the same period last year. The number of internet users as at the end of June 2011 was estimated reaching 30.1 million, up 22.1% from the same period in 2010. The total postal and communicational service net income in 6 months was estimated reaching 67.2 trillion dongs, up 18.3% from the same period last year.

d. International visitors to Viet Nam

International visitors to Vietnam in 6 months were estimated reaching 2,965,800, up 18.1% against the same period last year. Of which, visitors coming for tourist purposes were 1,773,400, up 11.2%; for business purposes 493,300, down 1.7%; for visiting relatives 512,900, up 77.6%. In 6 months of this year, visitors to Vietnam from almost countries and territories increased, of which visitors from China rose 51.5%; from Republic of Korea 3.7%; from the United States 3.4%; from Japan 11.7%; from Cambodia 77.4%; from Taiwan 8%; from Australia 6.2%; from Malaysia 16.7%; from France 8.5%; and from Singapore 7.8%.

II. STABILISING MACROECONOMY AND CURBING INFLATION

1. Investment and development

Six months’ social realized investment capital at current prices was estimated reaching 409.7 trillion dongs, up 5% against last year ‘same period and equal to 38.3% of GDP, of which capital from the state sector was 141.1 trillion dongs, down 3%; from the non-state sector: 163 trillion dongs, up14.6%; and from the FDI sector: 105.6 trillion dongs, up 3.1%.

Of the state investment, the realized investment capital from the state budget was estimated reaching 73.7 trillion dongs, equaling 38.8% of the yearly estimate and up 8.6% from the same period in 2010, of which investment under central management reached 17.7 trillion dongs, equaling 42.4% of the yearly estimate and up 6.7%; investment under local management was 56 trillion dongs, equaling 37.7% of the yearly estimate and up 9.2%.

The attracted FDI from 1/1 to 22/6/2011 reached 5,666.7 million USD, equaling 56.7% from last year’ same period. Of which, the registered capital of 455 newly licensed projects was USD 4399.2 million (down 49.9% by capital and 30.1% projects from last year’ same period); the additional registered capital of 132 times of projects licensed from previous years was USD1267.5 million. Realized FDI in 6 months was estimated reaching USD 5,300 million, down 1.9% from last year’ same period.

Among FDI economic sectors in 6 months of this year, the manufacturing had a leading registered capital with USD 3,333.2 million, including USD 2,666.7 million newly registered capital and USD 666.5 million added capital; the construction reached USD 474.8 million, including USD 333.2 million newly registered capital and USD 141.6 million added capital; the water supply, waste management and treatment gained USD 322.7 million.

2. Government revenues and expenditures

As estimated, total Government revenues from beginning of the year to 15/6/2011 reached 301.3 trillion dongs, equaling 50.6% of the yearly estimate, of which domestic revenues were 189.2 trillion dongs, equaling 49.5%; from crude oil 42 trillion dongs, equaling 60.6%; from import-export 67.6 trillion dongs, equaling 48.7%. Of the domestic revenues, collecting from state enterprises was equal to 47.1%; from FDI enterprises (excluding crude oil) 45%; from non-state industrial, commercial and service taxes 48.8%; taxes imposed on high-income persons 60.2%; petroleum fees 43.9%; and other fees 38.3% of the yearly estimate.

As estimated, total Government expenditures from beginning of the year to 15/6/2011 reached 331.5 trillion dongs, equaling 45.7% of the yearly estimate, of which spending for investment and development was 74.1 trillion dongs, equaling 48.8% (spending for capital construction only was 71 trillion dongs, equaling 48.9%); for economic and social development, national defense and security 213.9 trillion dongs, equaling 48.4%; for paying debts and aids 43.5 trillion dongs, equaling 50.6%.

3. Export and import of goods and services

a. Exports

June’s export turnover was estimated reaching USD 7.8 billion, up 7.8% from May and 23.4% from the same period in 2010. Generally, export turnovers in 6 months reached USD 42.3 billion, up 30.3% from last year ‘same period, of which the domestic economic sector gained USD 19.4 billion, up 29.4%; the FDI sector (including crude oil) USD 22.9 billion, up 31.1%. If gold re-exportation was excluded, the six months ‘export turnover rose 33.2% from the same period in 2010.

The increase in six months ‘export turnovers resulted from increase in the volume of some exported items in one side, and price rising for some items in the world market in the other side, e.g. pepper rose 72.2%; rubber 62%; coffee 57.3%; cashew nut 42.3%; crude oil 41%; petrol 38%; cassava and cassava products 33%; steel 19%. If the price rising factor was excluded, six months ‘export turnovers rose 14.7%.

A great change in six months ‘export turnovers structure from the same period in2010 was that proportion of agricultural and forestry product group rose from 16% to 21.1%, mainly due to the rising of price unit. Proportions of others item decreased: heavy industrial and mineral products from 30.2% to29.5%; light industrial and handicraft goods from 43.5% to 41.3%; gold and gold products from 4.1% to 2%.

About the market for exportation, in six months of this year the United States was still the largest markets for Vietnamese exports with 7.6 billion USD, up 21.3% from last year ‘same period; next came to EU with USD 7.4 billion, up 49.1%; ASEAN with USD 6.1 billion, up 16.6%; Japan with USD 4.6 billion, up 32.4%; China with USD 4.5 billion, up 56.6%.

b. Imports

June’s import turnover was estimated reaching USD 8.2 billion, down 5.2% from May and up 16% from last year ‘same period. Generally, six months import turnovers reached USD 49 billion, up 25.8% from last year ‘same period, of which the domestic economic sector reached USD 27.6 billion, up 22.9%; and the FDI sector with USD 21.4 billion, up 29.7%.

Similar to export, the price rising of some imputed items was one of reasons for increase in import turnovers. Of which, cotton rose 106.8%, petrol 43.8%, textile fiber 38.5%, wheat 40.6%, gas 21.6%, plastic 18.8%. If the price rising factor was excluded, six months ‘import turnovers rose 15.1%

The import structure also had a change from last year ‘same period. Of which, proportion of consumer goods rose from 7.2% to 8.2%; while proportion of means of production slowed down from 92.2% to 91.3%.

About the market for importation, China still took the lead with estimated USD 11 billion for six months, up 20.5% from last year ‘same period; ASEAN USD 10.3 billion, up 36.1%; Republic of Korea USD 5.9 billion, up 41%; Japan USD 4.5 billion, up 10.8%.

June’s trade deficit was estimated reaching USD 400 million, equaling 5.1% of export turnovers, down much from previous months mainly due to re-exportation of gold. If gold was excluded, trade deficit was estimated reaching USD 1 billion. Six months’ trade deficits were estimated reaching USD 6.65 billion, equaling 15.7% of export turnovers. If gold was excluded, the figure was USD 7.5 billion, equaling 18.1% of export turnovers.

4. Price indexes

a. Consumer Price Indexes (CPI)

June’s CPI rose 1.09% from May, of which the group of catering and related service had highest rate of 1.79% (grain food rose 0.33%; foodstuff 2.47%; outdoor eating and drinking 1.16%); others had rates from 0.3% to 0.8%. Only CPI of postal and communication service decreased by 0.01%.

June’s CPI rose 13.29% from 12/2010 and 20.82% from the same period last year. Average CPI in 6 months of this year rose 16.03% as compared to that in the same period in 2010.

b. Producer price indexes (PPI) and export-import price indexes

As compared with the same period in 2010, PPIs in 6 months of this year were as follows: PPIs for agricultural, forestry and fishing products rose 27.57%; industrial products 16.71%; price indexes for raw material used for production rose 18.32%; transport charges rose 15.85%. Export price indexes rose 13.6%; import price indexes rose 9.28%.

III. SOCIAL ISSUES

1. Labor and employment

As estimated, the country’s labor force aged 15 and above in 6 months of this year had 50.4 million, up 33,200 against the average workforce in 2010, of which 26 million were men, up 72,400 persons; 24.4 million were women, down 39,200 persons. The country’s labor force within age was 46.4 million, decreased 7,200 from last year’s average, of which 24.6 million were men, rose 42,600 and 21.8 million were women, reduced 49,800 persons.

As estimated, the country’s laborers under work in 6 months of this year reached 49.2 million rose 171,000 from last year’s average, of which 48.6% of laborers were working in the sector of agriculture, forestry and fishery; 21.2% in the sector of industry and construction and 30.2% in the service sector.

According to the labor survey for 4237 industrial enterprises, June’s workforce of these enterprises were estimated to rise 1% from May, of which state enterprises rose 0.3%; non-state enterprises 1.3% and FDI enterprises 1.3%. Among three one-digit industrial branches, the workforce of the manufacturing rose 1.1%; the mining and quarrying 0.3%; the workforce of the power and water supply were unchanged.

The unemployment rate within labor age group in 6 months was 2.58%, of which it was 3.96% for urban area and 2.02% for rural area. The underemployment rate within labor age group was 3.9%, of which it was 2.15% for urban area and 4.6% for rural area.

2. People’s life and social security

In early months of the year, price rise together with natural calamity and epidemic diseases for crops and animals have adversely impacted on production and people’s life. However, Owing to the care of the Government and good implementation of social security policies by line ministries and administrative levels, the life of almost people has been rather stable. Since the beginning of the year, many timely social aid activities have been carried out throughout the country with 1.3 trillion dongs and 25,000 tons of rice, contributing to reducing difficulties for poor families, handicapped persons, and people living in far and remote regions.

Additionally, minimum salary level was adjusted to rise from 730,000 dongs to 830,000 dongs per month from May 2011 and subsidy granted to low income persons according to Decision No. 471/QĐ-TTg dated 30/3/2011 by the Prime Minister have also contributed partly to improving the life of those people. The status of food shortage between crops decreased against the same period last year. In 6 months of this year, times of hunger households decreased by 13.0% and times of hunger persons by 4.7% from last year ‘same period. To overcome this problem, all organizations and agencies over the country since beginning of the year have supported hunger families 16,500 tons of food and 9.2 billion dongs, only in June 2,500 tons of food and 5.4 billion dongs were supplied.

3. Education

The educational popularization program has been strongly promoted everywhere. To the end of June 2011, 57/63 provinces and cities over the country have completed the program for primary level within right age group and 63/63 provinces and cities have fulfilled the educational popularization for junior secondary level. Provinces that have not completed the program for primary level within right age group are Ha Giang, Cao Bang, Bac Kan, Gia Lai, Ninh Thuan and Binh Phuoc.

4. Epidemic diseases and food poisoning

In 6 months of the year, the country had 17,500 cases of hemorrhagic fever (14 died); 381 cases of virus encephalitis (6 died), 498 cases of A H1N1 (13 died) and 164 cases of typhoid. In June, there were additional over 2,000 cases found infected with HIV, taking the number of HIV infected cases over the country as middle of June to 239,800 persons, of which 96,600 turned to AIDS and 50,400 persons died of AIDS.

Only in June there were 13 cases of food poisoning, infecting 786 persons. From the beginning of the year, the country had 45 cases of food poisoning, infecting 2,400 persons, of which 7 died.

5. Culture and sport

Six months ‘cultural and information activities have focused on informing political tasks, welcoming the Party, the New Lunar Year, and the success of Party conferences at all levels and celebrating national great days. Especially, localities over the country have fulfilled the work of informing of the election of National Assembly, Course XIII and People’s Councils of all levels for period 2011-2016.

Cultural supervision has been promoted. In 6 months of the year, the cultural branch checked 2,600 business establishments, found 349 violated establishments, fined violated units nearly 700 million dong and suspended 14 units. 

Sport activities of the mass occurred ebulliently with various types. In high performance sport, there were 62 national teams and reserved teams and 45 young teams with over 1,500 sportsmen and over 250 coaches with 30 experts for SEA Games 26 and Olympic 2012. In 6 months, the Vietnamese team gained 29 gold medals, 45 silver medals and 47 bronze medals in international sport games.

6. Traffic accidents

In 5 months of this year, the country had 5,705 cases of traffic accident, killing 4,787 persons and injuring 4,399 others. As compared to the same period in 2010, cases of traffic accident decreased by 0.3%, the death rose by 1.1% and the wounded by 5.8%. On average, each day in 5 months, the country had 38 cases of traffic accident, killing 32 persons and injuring 29 others.

7. Natural calamity

According to preliminary report, natural calamity occurred in 6 months of the year made 66 died and gone missing; over 10,000 houses collapsed and damaged; over 67,000 ha of rice and vegetables flooded; nearly 60,000 animals died. Total losses caused by natural calamity were estimated at about 2.2 trillion dongs. Total cash supported to affected areas was over 110 billion dongs. 

In conclusion, the country’socio-economy in 6 months of 2011 has achieved positive results. The economy has maintained a reasonable growth with higher increase in the second quarter than that in the first one. CPI of months at end of Q. II has slowed down with a tendency of gradual decrease. Some economic sectors have gained good results. Social security has been positively changed. However, the country’s economy still meets difficulties and challenges like: although inflation has slowed down, it is still high; business and production are facing difficulties in capital and high costs of inputs; Attracted FDI trends to decrease. To successfully implement the socio-economic plan for 2011, All administrative levels, line ministries and economic corporations should strengthen close coordination to carry out successfully the Government Resolution No. 11/NQ-CP to continue curbing inflation, stabilizing macro economy and keeping social security./.

General Statistics Office, Ministry of Planning and Investment

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