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Socio-Economic Infor 2012

Socio-economic situation in nine months of 2012
26/11/2012 14:25:00

1. Implementation of prioritized targets to curb inflation and stabilize the macro economy

- Prices and inflation: The CPI in September rose 2.2% against the last month; in which: medicine and health services increased by 17.02% (health services increased 23.87%); education by 10.54%; traffic by 3.83%; housing and construction materials by 2.18%.

CPI in September rose by 5.13% compared with December 2011 and by 6.48% compared to the same period last year, lower than the growth rate of the CPI of the previous years. The average CPI in the first 9 months of the year increased by 9.96% compared to the same period in 2011.

- State budget revenues and expenditures: In accumulation from the beginning of the year to September 15th 2012, total state budget revenue was estimated to reach 468.55 trillion dong, equivalent to 63.3% of the yearly estimate; total budget expenditure was estimated at 606.35 trillion dong, equaling 67.1% of the yearly estimate.

- Export and import: Export turnover in the month was estimated to reach US$ 9.7 billion, down 5.9% against August; import turnover was estimated at US$ 9.8 billion, down 4.45%; trade deficit was about US$ 100 million.

In the first 9 months of 2012, the total export turnover was at an estimation of US$ 83.79 billion, up 18.9% compared to the same period last year. Total import turnover was estimated to reach US$ 83.76 billion, up 6.6% compared to the same period last year. Trade surplus in the first 9 months was about US$ 34 million, equaling 0.04% of the total export turnover.

- Investment for development from the state budget was accumulated from the beginning of the year to September 15th 2012 with an estimation of 118.49 trillion dong, equivalent to 65.8% of the yearly plan. Disbursement of government bond capital was accumulated with an estimation of 28.5 trillion dong, equaling about 63.3% of the yearly plan; the State’s credit capital for medium and long-term loans was estimated at 17, 9 trillion dong, equaling 84.2% of the yearly plan; realized FDI capital was estimated at US$ 8.1 billion, equivalent to 98.8% over the same period in 2011; ODA capital disbursement was at an estimation of US$ 2,880 million, equivalent to 94.7% of the yearly plan; in which, loans were estimated at US$ 2,700 million, non refundable aids were estimated at US$ 180 million.

2. Implementation of the economic growth target

- Growth of gross domestic product (GDP): GDP growth rate in Quarter III/2012 was estimated at approximately 5.35%, lower than that of the same period in the previous years (Quarter III/2010 increased by 7.18%, Quarter III/2011 by 6.07%). However, the above increase is a great effort in the condition of focusing on curbing inflation, stabilizing the macro economy. GDP growth rate in the first 9 months of the year has tended to improve after each Quarter: GDP in Quarter I increased by 4%, the second Quarter by 4.66%, the third Quarter by about 5.35%. The overall growth rate of GDP in the first 9 months of 2012 was estimated at about 4.73%; in which: added value of agriculture, forestry and fishery increased by about 2.48%; industry and construction by 4.36%; service sector by 5.97%.

- Industrial production: Thanks to strong measures to remove difficulties, support business development, especially the solutions proposed in Resolution No.13/NQ-CP, industrial production had positive changes through each month, inventory tended to decrease. However, industrial production still faced many difficulties especially the processing, manufacturing industry. The index of industrial production (IIP) in the first 9 months of 2012 increased by about 4.8% compared to the same period in 2011, only equaling 61.5% of the growth level in the same period last year (7.8%), in which: mining industry increased by 4%; processing, manufacturing industry by 4.2%; production and distribution of electricity, natural gas by 12.8%; provision of water, rubbish and waste water management and treatment by 8.4%.

- Production of agriculture, forestry and fishery continued to develop relatively stably: gross output in the first 9 months was estimated at 3.7%, in which agriculture rose by 2.9%, forestry by 6.2% and fishery by 5.3%.

As of September 15th 2012, the country cultivated over 1,716 thousand hectares of winter rice, increased 0.6% compared to the same period last year; the North reached over 1,184 thousand hectares, equaling 99.4%. The Southern provinces harvested about 1,697 thousand hectares of summer rice, increased 1.6% compared to the same period in 2011.

- The service sector continued to grow considerably: Total turnover of retail goods and services in the first 9 months was estimated to reach 1,713 trillion dong, up 17.3% over the same period in 2011. Tourism, transport, post and telecommunications... continued to grow, meeting the needs of production and people’s lives.

3. Education and training, science and technology, labor, employment, social security, health care, culture and other social sectors

- Labor and employment: In the first 9 months of 2012, there were about 1,130 thousands jobs created nationwide, reaching over 70.6% of planned yearly targets, in which labor export was about 60 thousand workers, reaching over 66.7% of the yearly plan.

- Education and training, science and technology, social security and other social sectors continued to achieve quite good results: in the month, the education and training sector organized inauguration for a new school year; improving the quality of teaching and learning; inspecting enrollment, the revenues at the beginning of school year, extra tuition and learning management in some localities. The levels and sectors have continued to implement positively social welfare policies, such as: monitoring the situation, implementing measures for prevention of storm, flood, timely organizing to rescue, response and surmount consequences, rapidly recovering production, stabilizing people's lives; supporting hungry relief and social assistance; implementing policies to those who deserve well of the motherland; social insurance and compulsory insurance policies for workers...

- Traffic safety and order: In the first nine months of the year, the whole country had 7,827 traffic accidents, killed 6,896 people and injured 5,596 people. Compared with the same period last year, the number of traffic accidents decreased by 21.7%, the number of killed people and injured people by 18% and 26.7% respectively.

In general, the economic-social situation in the first 9 months of 2012 had positive changes in the right direction. Solutions to inflation curbing and macroeconomic stabilization continued to uphold effectiveness. Interest rate reduced, the credit structure had positive change in the direction of increasing credit to prioritized sectors, such as: agriculture, rural development, export, small and medium enterprises, auxiliary industry; exchange rate was basically stable, foreign currency reserves increased. Export continued to maintain higher growth than the planned targets; trade deficit decreased considerably, reaching trade balance in the first 9 months of the year. Agricultural production developed stably, achieving good results. Industrial production showed signs of recovery; difficulties in production and business have gradually been removed; inventory index declined steadily. Service sector continued to develop. The disbursement of investment capital from the State budget and Government bonds has been accelerated; ODA disbursements have been increased over the same period. Social security and social welfare were guaranteed; traffic accidents decreased drastically. Education and training, science and technology, culture, sports and other social issues made progress. National defense, security have been enhanced; foreign affairs continued to be interested in promoting.

However, the socio-economic situation has remained difficulties, challenges: Macro economy has not really been sustained; CPI tended to rise again; economic growth was lower than expectation. Export growth rate kept slower; importation of equipments and raw materials for production reduced. Enterprise sector has remained difficult, with low capital absorption; number of enterprises dissolved or suspending operation increased; production and business had slow recovery; purchasing power of the domestic market was low, the inventory of some sectors remained high. Total economy’s investment capital and the state budget revenues were lower than plan. Living conditions of a part of the population have to cope with difficulties; social evils, crimes have still been complicated...

General Statistics Office - Ministry of Planning and Investment

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